Back to UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Elijah Smith vs Toshiomi Kazama

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Elijah Smith
Toshiomi Kazama
73% 27%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
23
Age
Δ 5y
28
11-1
Career record
Δ 21 pp
12-5
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Smith: 37 sig / 0 TD · Kazama: 0 sig / 1 TD
Elijah Smith
Toshiomi Kazama
37
Sig strikes landed
24
74
Sig strikes attempted
62
57
Total strikes landed
41
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.5
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
156s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
40%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Elijah Smith

"Swift"
11-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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Blue corner
W1

Toshiomi Kazama

12-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spi…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
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L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
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