Prelims1
Flyweight
Charles Johnson vs Lone'er Kavanagh
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
·Shanghai Indoor Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Charles Johnson
Lone'er Kavanagh
47%
53%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
35
Age
Δ 8y
26
19-9
Career record
Δ 24 pp
11-1
L1
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Johnson: 44 sig / 1 TD ·
Kavanagh: 59 sig / 1 TD
Charles Johnson
Lone'er Kavanagh
61
Sig strikes landed
56
132
Sig strikes attempted
120
74
Total strikes landed
69
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.2
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
91s
Control time
199s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Charles Johnson
"InnerG"
19-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almab…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
—
Blue corner
W2
Lone'er Kavanagh
11-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figuei…
—