Main
Heavyweight
Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes Acosta
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
·Shanghai Indoor Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sergei Pavlovich
Waldo Cortes Acosta
69%
31%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
33
Age
Δ 1y
34
22-3
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-3
W1
Current streak
W5
10
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pavlovich: 61 sig / 0 TD ·
Cortes Acosta: 45 sig / 0 TD
Sergei Pavlovich
Waldo Cortes Acosta
39
Sig strikes landed
38
94
Sig strikes attempted
75
50
Total strikes landed
59
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
92s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Sergei Pavlovich
22-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
84"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. I…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
Blue corner
W5
Waldo Cortes Acosta
"Salsa Boy"
18-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—