Main
Catch Weight
Brian Ortega vs Aljamain Sterling
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
·Shanghai Indoor Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brian Ortega
Aljamain Sterling
33%
67%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
34
Age
Δ 2y
36
16-6
Career record
Δ 9 pp
26-6
L1
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
21
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Ortega: 55 sig / 0 TD ·
Sterling: 124 sig / 3 TD
Brian Ortega
Aljamain Sterling
69
Sig strikes landed
91
153
Sig strikes attempted
147
84
Total strikes landed
115
0.6
Takedowns landed
2.5
2.4
Takedowns attempted
9.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
92s
Control time
235s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
16-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database
13 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
L
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
Blue corner
L1
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
26-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
21 fights · 16-5
Last 5
L
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
L
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
W
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—