Main
Lightweight
Alexander Hernandez vs Diego Ferreira
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
·Frost Bank Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Alexander Hernandez
Diego Ferreira
62%
38%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
33
Age
Δ 8y
41
19-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
19-8
W3
Current streak
L1
16
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Hernandez: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Ferreira: 23 sig / 0 TD
Alexander Hernandez
Diego Ferreira
68
Sig strikes landed
69
154
Sig strikes attempted
133
70
Total strikes landed
77
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
60s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Alexander Hernandez
"El Gran Chango"
19-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
16 fights · 9-7
Last 5
W
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Do…
—
W
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
Blue corner
L1
Diego Ferreira
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
16 fights · 10-6
Last 5
L
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—