Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Santiago Luna
Quang Le
80%
20%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
21
Age
Δ 13y
34
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Luna: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Le: 12 sig / 0 TD
Santiago Luna
Quang Le
42
Sig strikes landed
31
80
Sig strikes attempted
71
65
Total strikes landed
51
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.9
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
141s
Control time
184s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
41%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Santiago Luna
"BorderBoy"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
Blue corner
W1
Quang Le
"Bang"
10-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figuei…
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L
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spi…
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