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Main Middleweight

Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus

UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva ·Frost Bank Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Kelvin Gastelum
Dustin Stoltzfus
60% 40%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
34
Age
Δ 0y
34
21-12
Career record
Δ 0 pp
16-9
L1
Current streak
L1
24
UFC fights in our DB
9

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gastelum: 57 sig / 0 TD · Stoltzfus: 64 sig / 1 TD
Kelvin Gastelum
Dustin Stoltzfus
44
Sig strikes landed
40
93
Sig strikes attempted
93
64
Total strikes landed
55
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
95s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Kelvin Gastelum

21-12 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database 24 fights · 13-10
Last 5
L UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
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W UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
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W UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
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L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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Blue corner
L1

Dustin Stoltzfus

16-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 9 fights · 3-6
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Mora…
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W UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Alb…
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L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
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L UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
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