Prelims1
Flyweight
Alessandro Costa vs Alden Coria
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
·Frost Bank Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Alessandro Costa
Alden Coria
57%
43%
Why
67"
Reach
67"
30
Age
Δ 2y
27
W1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Costa: 12 sig / 1 TD ·
Coria: 42 sig / 2 TD
Alessandro Costa
Alden Coria
39
Sig strikes landed
40
81
Sig strikes attempted
85
55
Total strikes landed
49
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
120s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alessandro Costa
"Nono"
16-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
L
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
Blue corner
Alden Coria
"Cobra"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27