Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rafa Garcia
Jared Gordon
72%
28%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
31
Age
Δ 6y
37
20-4
Career record
Δ 12 pp
22-9
W1
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Garcia: 91 sig / 2 TD ·
Gordon: 65 sig / 1 TD
Rafa Garcia
Jared Gordon
60
Sig strikes landed
63
137
Sig strikes attempted
136
83
Total strikes landed
93
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.1
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
165s
Control time
171s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rafa Garcia
"Gifted"
20-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Jared Gordon
"Flash"
22-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
16 fights · 9-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Mora…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
L
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—