Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jesus Aguilar
Luis Gurule
63%
37%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
30
Age
Δ 2y
32
12-5
Career record
Δ 2 pp
11-5
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aguilar: 85 sig / 1 TD ·
Gurule: 65 sig / 0 TD
Jesus Aguilar
Luis Gurule
29
Sig strikes landed
18
56
Sig strikes attempted
45
51
Total strikes landed
35
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
140s
Control time
171s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jesus Aguilar
12-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
Blue corner
L1
Luis Gurule
"Grim"
11-5
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Mur…
—