Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Austin Bashi
John Yannis
80%
20%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
24
Age
Δ 7y
31
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Bashi: 2 sig / 1 TD ·
Yannis: 0 sig / 0 TD
Austin Bashi
John Yannis
28
Sig strikes landed
33
56
Sig strikes attempted
50
54
Total strikes landed
49
3.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.6
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
320s
Control time
58s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Austin Bashi
14-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—
Blue corner
John Yannis
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31