Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rafael Estevam
Felipe Bunes
84%
16%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
29
Age
Δ 7y
36
15-1
Career record
Δ 31 pp
15-9
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Estevam: 33 sig / 5 TD ·
Bunes: 26 sig / 0 TD
Rafael Estevam
Felipe Bunes
24
Sig strikes landed
17
46
Sig strikes attempted
21
54
Total strikes landed
32
3.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.2
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
306s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
49%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Rafael Estevam
"Macapa"
15-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
Blue corner
W1
Felipe Bunes
"Felipinho"
15-9
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—