Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mateusz Rebecki
Chris Duncan
65%
35%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
21-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
16-3
W1
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rebecki: 114 sig / 2 TD ·
Duncan: 92 sig / 0 TD
Mateusz Rebecki
Chris Duncan
46
Sig strikes landed
29
91
Sig strikes attempted
81
68
Total strikes landed
49
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.5
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
142s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mateusz Rebecki
21-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
Blue corner
W2
Chris Duncan
"The Problem"
16-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—