Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Elves Brener
Esteban Ribovics
56%
44%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
28
Age
Δ 2y
29
16-7
Career record
Δ 9 pp
15-4
L2
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brener: 118 sig / 0 TD ·
Ribovics: 122 sig / 0 TD
Elves Brener
Esteban Ribovics
89
Sig strikes landed
81
198
Sig strikes attempted
190
93
Total strikes landed
89
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.3
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
84s
Control time
39s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Elves Brener
16-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
Blue corner
L1
Esteban Ribovics
"El Gringo"
15-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almab…
—
W
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
L
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—