Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Karol Rosa
Nora Cornolle
80%
20%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
67"
31
Age
Δ 5y
36
19-8
Career record
Δ 1 pp
10-4
L1
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rosa: 33 sig / 2 TD ·
Cornolle: 27 sig / 0 TD
Karol Rosa
Nora Cornolle
62
Sig strikes landed
64
96
Sig strikes attempted
114
101
Total strikes landed
91
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
244s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Karol Rosa
19-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spi…
—
L
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Nora Cornolle
10-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
—