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Main Featherweight

Nate Landwehr vs Morgan Charriere

Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Nate Landwehr
Morgan Charriere
49% 51%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
37
Age
Δ 7y
30
18-9
Career record
Δ 7 pp
21-13-1
L1
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Landwehr: 63 sig / 0 TD · Charriere: 67 sig / 2 TD
Nate Landwehr
Morgan Charriere
57
Sig strikes landed
49
114
Sig strikes attempted
116
75
Total strikes landed
63
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.2
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
103s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Nate Landwehr

"The Train"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
W UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
L UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
W UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
W UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
Blue corner
L1

Morgan Charriere

"The Last Pirate"
21-13-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
W UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
L UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
W UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac