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Main Featherweight

Calvin Kattar vs Steve Garcia

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira ·Bridgestone Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Calvin Kattar
Steve Garcia
44% 56%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
37
Age
Δ 4y
33
23-11
Career record
Δ 12 pp
20-5
L4
Current streak
W5
14
UFC fights in our DB
8

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kattar: 26 sig / 0 TD · Garcia: 85 sig / 0 TD
Calvin Kattar
Steve Garcia
34
Sig strikes landed
54
99
Sig strikes attempted
123
44
Total strikes landed
61
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
60s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L4

Calvin Kattar

23-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 14 fights · 7-7
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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L UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
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L UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
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L UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
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W UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
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Blue corner
W5

Steve Garcia

"Mean Machine"
20-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
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W UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jand…
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W UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
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W UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
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W UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
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