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Main Heavyweight

Vitor Petrino vs Austen Lane

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira ·Bridgestone Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Vitor Petrino
Austen Lane
86% 14%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
80"
28
Age
Δ 10y
38
14-3
Career record
Δ 23 pp
13-9
L2
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Petrino: 3 sig / 1 TD · Lane: 3 sig / 0 TD
Vitor Petrino
Austen Lane
28
Sig strikes landed
19
46
Sig strikes attempted
37
52
Total strikes landed
35
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
249s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Vitor Petrino

14-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
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L UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
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W UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
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W UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
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W UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
Blue corner
L1

Austen Lane

13-9 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 5 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almab…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. …
—
L UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
L UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—