Main
Welterweight
Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
·Bridgestone Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stephen Thompson
Gabriel Bonfim
17%
83%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
42
Age
Δ 14y
28
17-10-1
Career record
Δ 35 pp
20-1
L2
Current streak
W2
21
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Thompson: 42 sig / 0 TD ·
Bonfim: 40 sig / 5 TD
Stephen Thompson
Gabriel Bonfim
68
Sig strikes landed
60
136
Sig strikes attempted
133
87
Total strikes landed
72
0.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
0.7
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.60
26s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
17-10-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
42
In our database
21 fights · 12-8
Last 5
L
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
L
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
Blue corner
W2
Gabriel Bonfim
"Marretinha"
20-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—