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Junior Tafa vs Tuco Tokkos

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira ·Bridgestone Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Junior Tafa
Tuco Tokkos
61% 39%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
29
Age
Δ 6y
35
8-5
Career record
Δ 0 pp
11-7
W1
Current streak
L2
5
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Tafa: 24 sig / 0 TD · Tokkos: 11 sig / 5 TD
Junior Tafa
Tuco Tokkos
30
Sig strikes landed
27
54
Sig strikes attempted
50
38
Total strikes landed
42
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
0.5
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
61s
Control time
177s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Junior Tafa

"The Juggernaut"
8-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
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L UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
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L UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
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Blue corner
L2

Tuco Tokkos

11-7
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Mu…
—