Prelims1
Welterweight
Jake Matthews vs Chidi Njokuani
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
·Bridgestone Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Matthews
Chidi Njokuani
67%
33%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 7"
80"
31
Age
Δ 6y
36
24-8
Career record
Δ 7 pp
26-12
W2
Current streak
W3
21
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Matthews: 3 sig / 1 TD ·
Njokuani: 5 sig / 0 TD
Jake Matthews
Chidi Njokuani
45
Sig strikes landed
46
82
Sig strikes attempted
97
68
Total strikes landed
63
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.2
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
191s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
24-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
21 fights · 14-7
Last 5
W
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
—
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
Blue corner
W3
Chidi Njokuani
"Bang Bang"
26-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—