Prelims1
Middleweight
Baisangur Susurkaev vs Eric Nolan
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
·United Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Baisangur Susurkaev
Eric Nolan
80%
20%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
25
Age
Δ 3y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Susurkaev: 36 sig / 2 TD ·
Nolan: 22 sig / 0 TD
Baisangur Susurkaev
Eric Nolan
40
Sig strikes landed
32
81
Sig strikes attempted
70
84
Total strikes landed
40
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
178s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Baisangur Susurkaev
"The Real Hunter"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Eric Nolan
"Nightime"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28