Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Tim Elliott
Kai Asakura
35%
65%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
39
Age
Δ 7y
32
23-14-1
Career record
Δ 15 pp
22-7
W1
Current streak
L1
20
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Elliott: 27 sig / 2 TD ·
Asakura: 21 sig / 0 TD
Tim Elliott
Kai Asakura
24
Sig strikes landed
33
39
Sig strikes attempted
63
47
Total strikes landed
47
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
230s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tim Elliott
23-14-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database
20 fights · 9-11
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
L
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
Blue corner
L1
Kai Asakura
22-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—