Back to UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Prelims1 Middleweight

Gerald Meerschaert vs Michal Oleksiejczuk

UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev ·United Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Gerald Meerschaert
Michal Oleksiejczuk
57% 43%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
38
Age
Δ 7y
30
37-23
Career record
Δ 10 pp
23-9
L2
Current streak
W1
23
UFC fights in our DB
16

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Meerschaert: 3 sig / 0 TD · Oleksiejczuk: 23 sig / 0 TD
Gerald Meerschaert
Michal Oleksiejczuk
35
Sig strikes landed
45
67
Sig strikes attempted
79
47
Total strikes landed
56
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.4
Takedowns attempted
0.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
98s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
33%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Gerald Meerschaert

"GM3"
37-23
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database 23 fights · 12-11
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Mur…
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L UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
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W UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Ty…
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L UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
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Blue corner
W1

Michal Oleksiejczuk

"Hussar"
23-9 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 16 fights · 8-7
Last 5
W UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
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L UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
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L UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
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L UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
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W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—