Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Lerone Murphy
Aaron Pico
68%
32%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
W8
Current streak
—
9
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Murphy: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Pico: 13 sig / 2 TD
Lerone Murphy
Aaron Pico
67
Sig strikes landed
37
113
Sig strikes attempted
89
85
Total strikes landed
49
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
189s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Lerone Murphy
"The Miracle"
18-1-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 8-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Mur…
—
W
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Mu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
Blue corner
Aaron Pico
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29