🏆 Title fight
Main
Middleweight
Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
·United Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dricus Du Plessis
Khamzat Chimaev
75%
25%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
32
Age
Δ 0y
31
24-3
Career record
Δ 5 pp
16-1
W8
Current streak
W8
9
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Du Plessis: 13 sig / 1 TD ·
Chimaev: 37 sig / 12 TD
Dricus Du Plessis
Khamzat Chimaev
57
Sig strikes landed
41
116
Sig strikes attempted
93
93
Total strikes landed
64
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
9.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
96s
Control time
174s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Dricus Du Plessis
"Stillknocks"
24-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 9-0
Last 5
W
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
—
W
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
Blue corner
W8
Khamzat Chimaev
"Borz"
16-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 8-0
Last 5
W
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—