Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Geoff Neal
Carlos Prates
34%
66%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
78"
35
Age
Δ 3y
32
17-8
Career record
Δ 7 pp
24-8
W1
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Neal: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Prates: 32 sig / 0 TD
Geoff Neal
Carlos Prates
59
Sig strikes landed
56
123
Sig strikes attempted
112
72
Total strikes landed
65
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
92s
Control time
41s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Geoff Neal
"Handz of Steel"
17-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
L
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
L
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
Blue corner
L1
Carlos Prates
"The Nightmare"
24-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
—
W
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—