Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Asu Almabayev
Jose Ochoa
77%
23%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
32
Age
Δ 7y
25
23-4
Career record
Δ 2 pp
10-2
L1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Almabayev: 22 sig / 7 TD ·
Ochoa: 26 sig / 1 TD
Asu Almabayev
Jose Ochoa
40
Sig strikes landed
26
76
Sig strikes attempted
78
62
Total strikes landed
39
3.3
Takedowns landed
0.1
6.3
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
306s
Control time
38s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Asu Almabayev
"Zulfikar"
23-4
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almab…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
—
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Jose Ochoa
"Kalzifer"
10-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buck…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figuei…
—