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Nikita Krylov vs Bogdan Guskov

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder ·Etihad Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Nikita Krylov
Bogdan Guskov
70% 30%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
33
Age
Δ 0y
33
31-12
Career record
Δ 11 pp
19-3-1
L1
Current streak
W3
19
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Krylov: 16 sig / 0 TD · Guskov: 23 sig / 0 TD
Nikita Krylov
Bogdan Guskov
25
Sig strikes landed
32
55
Sig strikes attempted
61
40
Total strikes landed
40
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
111s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Nikita Krylov

"The Miner"
31-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 19 fights · 11-8
Last 5
L UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
W UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
Blue corner
W3

Bogdan Guskov

"Hitman"
19-3-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
—