Main
Middleweight
Shara Magomedov vs Marc-Andre Barriault
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shara Magomedov
Marc-Andre Barriault
82%
18%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
31
Age
Δ 4y
35
16-2
Career record
Δ 27 pp
18-11
L1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Magomedov: 93 sig / 0 TD ·
Barriault: 39 sig / 2 TD
Shara Magomedov
Marc-Andre Barriault
76
Sig strikes landed
61
146
Sig strikes attempted
134
78
Total strikes landed
65
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.3
0.7
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
90s
Control time
17s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Shara Magomedov
"Bullet"
16-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. I…
—
W
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
Blue corner
W1
Marc-Andre Barriault
"Powerbar"
18-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
15 fights · 6-8
Last 5
W
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Alb…
—
L
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
L
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—