Prelims1
Bantamweight
Bryce Mitchell vs Said Nurmagomedov
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Bryce Mitchell
Said Nurmagomedov
64%
36%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
31
Age
Δ 2y
33
18-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
18-6
L1
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mitchell: 13 sig / 3 TD ·
Nurmagomedov: 20 sig / 0 TD
Bryce Mitchell
Said Nurmagomedov
33
Sig strikes landed
28
62
Sig strikes attempted
55
57
Total strikes landed
44
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
5.8
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
239s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Bryce Mitchell
"Thug Nasty"
18-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
L
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
W
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
L
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gam…
—
L
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
Blue corner
L1
Said Nurmagomedov
18-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. I…
—
W
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—