Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Petr Yan
Marcus McGhee
75%
25%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
32
Age
Δ 3y
35
21-5
Career record
Δ 4 pp
11-2
W2
Current streak
W4
14
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Yan: 81 sig / 1 TD ·
McGhee: 64 sig / 0 TD
Petr Yan
Marcus McGhee
78
Sig strikes landed
70
139
Sig strikes attempted
151
89
Total strikes landed
75
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.2
3.4
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
185s
Control time
15s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Petr Yan
"No Mercy"
21-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figuei…
—
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
L
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
L
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
Blue corner
W4
Marcus McGhee
"The Maniac"
11-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—