Back to UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
Prelims2 Heavyweight

Ryan Spann vs Lukasz Brzeski

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 ·Smoothie King Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ryan Spann
Lukasz Brzeski
80% 20%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
34
Age
Δ 1y
33
24-12
Career record
Δ 17 pp
9-8-1
L1
Current streak
L2
14
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Spann: 8 sig / 1 TD · Brzeski: 5 sig / 0 TD
Ryan Spann
Lukasz Brzeski
37
Sig strikes landed
30
79
Sig strikes attempted
53
57
Total strikes landed
44
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.0
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
161s
Control time
37s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Ryan Spann

"Superman"
24-12
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 14 fights · 8-6
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Do…
—
W UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
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L UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
Blue corner
L2

Lukasz Brzeski

"The Bull"
9-8-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 6 fights · 1-5
Last 5
L UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
L UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—