Back to UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
Prelims2 Light Heavyweight

Jimmy Crute vs Marcin Prachnio

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 ·Smoothie King Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jimmy Crute
Marcin Prachnio
74% 26%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
29
Age
Δ 8y
37
14-4-3
Career record
Δ 4 pp
17-10
D1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
10

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Crute: 5 sig / 3 TD · Prachnio: 21 sig / 0 TD
Jimmy Crute
Marcin Prachnio
33
Sig strikes landed
35
68
Sig strikes attempted
67
44
Total strikes landed
47
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.2
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
108s
Control time
45s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
D1

Jimmy Crute

14-4-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 10 fights · 4-4
Last 5
D UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
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L UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
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D UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
L UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
Blue corner
L1

Marcin Prachnio

17-10
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 10 fights · 4-6
Last 5
L UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—