Main
Welterweight
Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
·Smoothie King Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kevin Holland
Daniel Rodriguez
67%
33%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 7"
74"
33
Age
Δ 6y
38
30-15
Career record
Δ 14 pp
21-5
W2
Current streak
W2
26
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Holland: 82 sig / 1 TD ·
Rodriguez: 77 sig / 0 TD
Kevin Holland
Daniel Rodriguez
81
Sig strikes landed
70
148
Sig strikes attempted
113
94
Total strikes landed
77
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
52s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
26 fights · 15-10
Last 5
W
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
—
L
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
L
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
Blue corner
W2
Daniel Rodriguez
"D-Rod"
21-5
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—