Main
Middleweight
Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
·Smoothie King Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Paulo Costa
Roman Kopylov
57%
43%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
34
Age
Δ 1y
33
16-5
Career record
Δ 0 pp
16-5
L2
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Costa: 99 sig / 0 TD ·
Kopylov: 48 sig / 0 TD
Paulo Costa
Roman Kopylov
63
Sig strikes landed
73
132
Sig strikes attempted
146
73
Total strikes landed
77
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
31s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Paulo Costa
"The Eraser"
16-5
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
L
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
Blue corner
W2
Roman Kopylov
16-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—