Prelims1
Welterweight
Francisco Prado vs Nikolay Veretennikov
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
·Smoothie King Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Francisco Prado
Nikolay Veretennikov
78%
22%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
23
Age
Δ 12y
36
12-6
Career record
Δ 6 pp
14-9
L2
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Prado: 47 sig / 3 TD ·
Veretennikov: 56 sig / 2 TD
Francisco Prado
Nikolay Veretennikov
47
Sig strikes landed
46
115
Sig strikes attempted
103
59
Total strikes landed
55
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
114s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Francisco Prado
12-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
—
L
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
Blue corner
L2
Nikolay Veretennikov
"Gladiator"
14-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spi…
—