Prelims1
Middleweight
Ateba Gautier vs Robert Valentin
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
·Smoothie King Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ateba Gautier
Robert Valentin
80%
20%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
23
Age
Δ 7y
30
12-1
Career record
Δ 29 pp
12-7
W1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Gautier: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Valentin: 2 sig / 0 TD
Ateba Gautier
Robert Valentin
42
Sig strikes landed
13
55
Sig strikes attempted
24
39
Total strikes landed
23
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
-0.1
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.60
Knockdowns
0.20
83s
Control time
60s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
61%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ateba Gautier
"The Storm"
12-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
81"
Stance
Switch
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
—
Blue corner
L2
Robert Valentin
"Robzilla"
12-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Mur…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—