Prelims1
Middleweight
Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
·Smoothie King Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marvin Vettori
Brendan Allen
30%
70%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
19-11-1
Career record
Δ 15 pp
26-8
L2
Current streak
L2
16
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Vettori: 109 sig / 0 TD ·
Allen: 111 sig / 3 TD
Marvin Vettori
Brendan Allen
48
Sig strikes landed
71
112
Sig strikes attempted
125
73
Total strikes landed
86
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.5
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
123s
Control time
165s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Marvin Vettori
"The Italian Dream"
19-11-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
16 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
Blue corner
L2
Brendan Allen
"All In"
26-8
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
16 fights · 12-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—