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Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 ·Smoothie King Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Max Holloway
Dustin Poirier
59% 41%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
34
Age
Δ 3y
36
27-10
Career record
Δ 0 pp
30-11
L1
Current streak
L1
30
UFC fights in our DB
31

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Holloway: 198 sig / 0 TD · Poirier: 109 sig / 0 TD
Max Holloway
Dustin Poirier
149
Sig strikes landed
103
276
Sig strikes attempted
233
141
Total strikes landed
103
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.7
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.60
Knockdowns
0.30
91s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Max Holloway

"Blessed"
27-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 30 fights · 22-8
Last 5
L UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
L UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
Blue corner
L1

Dustin Poirier

"The Diamond"
30-11 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database 31 fights · 22-8
Last 5
L UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
W UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
L UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
W UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
L UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—