Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Niko Price
Jacobe Smith
29%
71%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
36
Age
Δ 6y
29
16-12
Career record
Δ 43 pp
13-0
L1
Current streak
W1
18
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Price: 34 sig / 0 TD ·
Smith: 46 sig / 2 TD
Niko Price
Jacobe Smith
33
Sig strikes landed
35
70
Sig strikes attempted
78
35
Total strikes landed
69
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
44s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Niko Price
"The Hybrid"
16-12
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
18 fights · 8-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jacobe Smith
"Cobe"
13-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—