Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Payton Talbott
Felipe Lima
54%
46%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
27
Age
Δ 0y
27
11-2
Career record
Δ 4 pp
15-2
L1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Talbott: 59 sig / 0 TD ·
Lima: 26 sig / 3 TD
Payton Talbott
Felipe Lima
40
Sig strikes landed
38
90
Sig strikes attempted
79
47
Total strikes landed
52
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
84s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Payton Talbott
11-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
Blue corner
W2
Felipe Lima
"Jungle Boy"
15-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—