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Prelims1 Middleweight

Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Jack Hermansson
Gregory Rodrigues
53% 47%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
37
Age
Δ 4y
33
25-10
Career record
Δ 2 pp
19-7
W1
Current streak
L1
17
UFC fights in our DB
10

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hermansson: 30 sig / 0 TD · Rodrigues: 18 sig / 0 TD
Jack Hermansson
Gregory Rodrigues
67
Sig strikes landed
69
141
Sig strikes attempted
143
85
Total strikes landed
84
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.50
110s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Jack Hermansson

"The Joker"
25-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 17 fights · 11-6
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
L UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
L UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
W UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
Blue corner
L1

Gregory Rodrigues

"Robocop"
19-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
W UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
W UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
W UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
L UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill