Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brandon Royval
Joshua Van
26%
74%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
65"
33
Age
Δ 9y
24
18-9
Career record
Δ 23 pp
18-2
W2
Current streak
W4
10
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Royval: 215 sig / 0 TD ·
Van: 204 sig / 0 TD
Brandon Royval
Joshua Van
83
Sig strikes landed
96
188
Sig strikes attempted
202
81
Total strikes landed
117
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.4
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.90
46s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Brandon Royval
"Raw Dawg"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
L
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
Blue corner
W4
Joshua Van
"The Fearless"
18-2
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
—
W
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—