🏆 Title fight
Main
Flyweight
Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexandre Pantoja
Kai Kara-France
82%
18%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
35
Age
Δ 3y
32
31-6
Career record
Δ 15 pp
26-12
W7
Current streak
W1
16
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Pantoja: 42 sig / 3 TD ·
Kara-France: 38 sig / 0 TD
Alexandre Pantoja
Kai Kara-France
76
Sig strikes landed
65
168
Sig strikes attempted
170
102
Total strikes landed
83
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
6.1
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
216s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
31-6
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
16 fights · 13-3
Last 5
W
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
W
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Kai Kara-France
"Don't Blink"
26-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—