🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Ilia Topuria
Charles Oliveira
54%
46%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
28
Age
Δ 7y
36
18-0
Career record
Δ 22 pp
38-11
W8
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
34
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Topuria: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Oliveira: 9 sig / 0 TD
Ilia Topuria
Charles Oliveira
75
Sig strikes landed
34
113
Sig strikes attempted
146
90
Total strikes landed
49
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
179s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
44%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Ilia Topuria
"El Matador"
18-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
8 fights · 8-0
Last 5
W
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
Blue corner
W1
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
34 fights · 23-10
Last 5
W
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
—
L
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
L
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—