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Main Featherweight

Sebastian Szalay vs Baergeng Jieleyisi

Road to UFC 4.1 + 4.2 ·UFC Performance Institute Shanghai
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Sebastian Szalay
Baergeng Jieleyisi
47% 53%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 5"
71"
31
Age
Δ 2y
30
—
Current streak
W2
0
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Szalay: 57 sig / 0 TD · Jieleyisi: 17 sig / 2 TD
Sebastian Szalay
Baergeng Jieleyisi
28
Sig strikes landed
38
55
Sig strikes attempted
77
42
Total strikes landed
60
0.8
Takedowns landed
2.0
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
97s
Control time
236s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
26%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Sebastian Szalay

"Seb"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
W2

Baergeng Jieleyisi

19-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W Road to UFC 3.5 + 3.6
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W Road to UFC 3.3 + 3.4
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L Road to UFC 2.3 + 2.4
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