Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Agulali
Mridul Saikia
75%
25%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
20
Age
Δ 8y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Agulali: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Saikia: 4 sig / 0 TD
Agulali
Mridul Saikia
38
Sig strikes landed
33
79
Sig strikes attempted
66
58
Total strikes landed
47
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
156s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Agulali
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Switch
Age
20
Blue corner
Mridul Saikia
"Crusher"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28