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Main Featherweight

Jin Aoi vs ChangMin Yoon

Road to UFC 4.1 + 4.2 ·UFC Performance Institute Shanghai
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jin Aoi
ChangMin Yoon
70% 30%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Aoi: 24 sig / 0 TD · Yoon: 87 sig / 2 TD
Jin Aoi
ChangMin Yoon
39
Sig strikes landed
36
79
Sig strikes attempted
78
56
Total strikes landed
45
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
165s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Jin Aoi

0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner

ChangMin Yoon

"The Big Heart"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31