Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Rio Tirto
Aaron Tau
64%
36%
Why
66"
Reach
66"
25
Age
Δ 6y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Tirto: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Tau: 8 sig / 1 TD
Rio Tirto
Aaron Tau
35
Sig strikes landed
35
75
Sig strikes attempted
70
45
Total strikes landed
54
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
175s
Control time
205s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Rio Tirto
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Switch
Age
25
Blue corner
Aaron Tau
"Tauzemup"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Switch
Age
32